The Core Constraint
Chinese factories close for Chinese New Year (CNY) for 2-4 weeks, typically in late January or early February. During this window:
- Production halts
- Shipping slows dramatically
- Raw material suppliers close
- Logistics companies run skeleton crews
- Communication becomes nearly impossible
Bad planning around CNY can kill your Q1.
The 6-Month Planning Calendar
September (6 months out)
- Finalize winter product designs
- Start negotiations with new factories
- Lock in pricing for November-December production
October (5 months out)
- Place bulk orders that need to ship by mid-January
- Order samples for spring products
- Communicate CNY plan with factories
November (4 months out)
- Finalize order quantities
- Place deposits
- Start Phase 1 production
- Coordinate PSI schedule
December (3 months out)
- Phase 1 production complete; PSI; balance payment
- Ship out before Chinese New Year logistics congestion (mid-December is ideal)
- Hold back a small buffer order for emergencies
January (2 months out)
- Final pre-CNY orders shipping
- Expect shipping rates to spike 30-80%
- Receive and QC domestic inventory
- Plan February-March replenishment from non-Chinese sources
February (CNY month)
- Factory workers travel home; most factories at 0-20% capacity
- Emails go unanswered; WeChat replies delayed
- Use this time for product development, market research, competitor analysis
- Don't expect any new orders
March (post-CNY)
- Factories reopen gradually; full capacity rarely before mid-March
- Quality can dip in first 2-3 weeks as workers re-onboard
- Place replenishment orders; prioritize urgent SKUs
Common CNY Mistakes
Waiting until December to plan
Factories are already committed to earlier customers. New orders get deprioritized or rejected.
Assuming ship dates hold
Pre-CNY shipping is always congested. Book early, pay for priority.
Forgetting QC dips post-CNY
Turnover during CNY means factories lose staff. New workers make more mistakes.
Not diversifying supply
Single-source from China means 4-week dead period. Build Vietnam, India, Mexico, or domestic alternates for critical SKUs.
Running out of inventory
Calculate your inventory coverage: sales forecast × 60 days should be on hand by January 1.
Shipping Considerations
- Book ocean freight 4-6 weeks before CNY
- Expedite critical SKUs via air freight (5-10x cost but available)
- US West Coast ports often congest with pre-CNY rush; consider East Coast or Mexican routing
- Track your containers — delays during CNY are common
Diversification Strategy
Consider for 2027+ planning:
- Vietnam / Thailand / Cambodia: apparel and accessories
- India: electronics and textiles growing
- Mexico: heavy goods and faster-turn products (nearshoring)
- Eastern Europe: auto parts and machinery
Start with 10-20% of volume outside China; scale as you learn partners.
How Catalayer Helps
[Sourcing Agent](/sourcing-agent) tracks factory response times and flags slow communication windows. [Source Finder](/source-finder) helps identify non-Chinese alternates when diversifying.
Key Takeaways
- CNY is 2-4 weeks of factory shutdown, typically late Jan/early Feb
- Start CNY planning in September (6 months out)
- Build 60+ days of inventory coverage
- Diversify supply base 10-20% outside China for resilience
- Expect shipping price spikes and QC dips post-CNY
See also [/guides/chinese-new-year-sourcing-impact](/guides/chinese-new-year-sourcing-impact).