Live markets: Bitcoin has traded below its mining cost for five months, squeezing miners
Full article text is available in the Catalayer news terminal.
Summary
Bitcoin has traded below its cost of production for five consecutive months, with JPMorgan estimating the network-average break-even around $78,000 against a spot price near $62,500. The strain is showing in miner behavior: publicly traded miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding all bitcoin sold by public miners in all of 2025.
Market Impact
The sustained below-cost environment is accelerating the self-regulating adjustment mechanism built into the bitcoin protocol. Mining difficulty dropped 10% in early June, its second such decline of the year, as higher-cost operators powered down machines. JPMorgan notes that the sensitivity of difficulty to price has increased, with more operators sitting near breakeven and toggling capacity in response to daily price moves. This analysis is informational and avoids any directional trading claims.
Why It Matters
It documents how prolonged price pressure is forcing structural exits among marginal bitcoin miners and accelerating the protocol's automatic difficulty adjustment at a scale not seen since 2022.
Key Points
- JPMorgan estimates the average cost to mine one bitcoin at roughly $78,000, well above the approximately $62,500 spot price, a gap that has persisted for five months.
- About 20% of bitcoin miners are now unprofitable, according to CoinShares data cited by JPMorgan.
- Publicly traded miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026 to cover operating costs, exceeding total disposals by public miners in all of 2025.
- Mining difficulty dropped 10% in early June, the second decline of that size this year, as higher-cost operators powered down, triggering the protocol's automatic hashrate-based adjustment mechanism.
Key Entities
Evidence
The bank pegs the cost to mine one bitcoin at about $78,000, well above the roughly $62,500 the asset fetches now.Supports: Supports the production cost vs. spot price gap.
About 20% of miners are now unprofitable, the bank said citing CoinShares data, and publicly traded miners sold more than 32,000 bitcoin in the first quarter to cover operating costs, more than they offloaded in all o...Supports: Supports the miner profitability and selling figures.
That played out in early June, when difficulty dropped 10%, the second decline of that size this year.Supports: Supports the difficulty adjustment figure.